MGT2101 Business Forecasting

MGT	2101	74109	1, 2008	ONC	Business Forecasting	1.00	Toowoomba
Subject	Cat-nbr	Class	Term	Mode	Description	Units	Campus

Academic group:	FOBUS
Academic org:	FOB004
Student contribution band:	2
ASCED code:	010103

Staffing
Requisites
Other requisites
Rationale
Synopsis
Objectives
Topics
Texts
Reference materials
Student workload
Assessment details
Important assessment information
Assessment notes
Production date
PDF version

STAFFING

Examiner: Mehryar Nooriafshar
Moderator: Glenda Adkins

REQUISITES

Pre-requisite: STA2300

OTHER REQUISITES

Students are required to have access to a personal computer, e-mail capabilities and Internet access to USQConnect. Current details of computer requirements can be found at http://www.usq.edu.au/business/aboutfob.htm

RATIONALE

All organisations and business managers operate in a climate of uncertainty. Forecasting is an integral part of managerial decision making and seeks to reduce the level of uncertainty through a series of quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques. All organisations set goals and objectives and subsequently pursue courses of action which will ultimately help them attain those specified goals and objectives. Forecasting can assist in this process by seeking to predict factors which will affect the stated outcomes.

SYNOPSIS

This course aims primarily to introduce students to a wide variety of forecasting methodologies and the situations in which they are applicable. The course concentrates predominantly on short-term, quantitative forecasting techniques which seek to identify patterns from historical data and to extrapolate those patterns into the future. We also discuss causal methods of forecasting through an analysis of simple and multiple regression analysis. In the final module of the course, we make mention of the many qualitative techniques available to the forecaster.

OBJECTIVES

The course objectives define the student learning outcomes for a course. The assessment item/s that may be used to assess student achievement of an objective is/are shown in parentheses after each objective. On successful completion of this course, students should be able to:

1.: Apply smoothing and averaging methods to appropriate data. Carry out calculation on data sets, by calculation and with use of computer package to process data, evaluate forecasting results from such package and determine adequacy of methods. (Assignment 1, Assignment 2, Examination)
2.: Apply decomposition models, by calculation and with the assistance of computer package. Evaluate and discuss results, with reference to model adequacy and adjustments. (Assignment 1, Assignment 2, Examination)
3.: Apply single and multiple regression models using computer package. Interpret and comment on analysis of results. Use computer package to refine such models. (Assignment 1, Assignment 2, Examination)
4.: Describe and identify Box-Jenkins forecasting models, stating the assumptions and conditions necessary for their application. (Assignment 1, Assignment 2, Examination)
5.: Discuss the place of judgemental forecasting in business, identify the weaknesses of such techniques, along with methods used to overcome some of these weaknesses. Define the concepts of leading indicators and business cycles, identify some of the methods of incorporating these ideas into forecasting. (Assignment 1, Assignment 2, Examination)

TOPICS

	Description	Weighting (%)
1.	Introduction to methodology of forecasting	10.00
2.	Averaging vs exponential methods	15.00
3.	Simple regression analysis	15.00
4.	Decomposition methods	15.00
5.	Multiple regression analysis	25.00
6.	Box Jenkins ARIMA modelling	10.00
7.	Long term and judgemental forecasting techniques	10.00

TEXT and MATERIALS required to be PURCHASED or accessed

ALL textbooks and materials are available for purchase from USQ BOOKSHOP (unless otherwise stated). Orders may be placed via secure internet, free fax 1800642453, phone 07 46312742 (within Australia), or mail. Overseas students should fax +61 7 46311743, or phone +61 7 46312742. For costs, further details, and internet ordering, use the 'Textbook Search' facility at http://bookshop.usq.edu.au click 'Semester', then enter your 'Course Code' (no spaces).

MGT2101 study package available from the USQ Bookshop.

Wilson, JH & Keating, B 2002, Business forecasting with accompanying Excel-based ForecastX software, 4th edn, McGraw Hill, Boston, Massachusetts.
(Includes CD rom)

REFERENCE MATERIALS

Reference materials are materials that, if accessed by students, may improve their knowledge and understanding of the material in the course and enrich their learning experience.

Bowerman, BL, O'Connell, RT & Koehler, AB 2005, Forecasting and time series - an applied approach, 4th edn, Thomson Brooks/Cole, Belmont, California.

Box, GEP, Jenkins, GM & Reinsel, GC 1994, Time series analysis - forecasting and control, 3rd edn, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.

Diebold, FX 2007, Elements of forecasting, 4th edn, Thomson South-Western, Mason, Ohio.

Hanke, JE & Wichern, DW 2005, Business forecasting, 8th edn, Pearson Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.

Makridakis, S, Wheelwright, SC & Hyndman, RJ 1998, Forecasting: methods and applications, 3rd edn, John Wiley & Sons, New York.

Sherman, HJ & Kolk, DX 1996, Business cycles and forecasting, Harper Collins College Publishers, New York.

Su, V 1996, Economic fluctuations and forecasting, Harper Collins College Publishing, New York.

STUDENT WORKLOAD REQUIREMENTS

ACTIVITY	HOURS
Assessments	15.00
Directed Study	25.00
Lectures	30.00
Others	3.00
Private Study	60.00
Tutorials	30.00

ASSESSMENT DETAILS

Description	Marks out of	Wtg(%)	Due date	Notes
ASSIGNMENT 1	15.00	15.00	14 Apr 2008
ASSIGNMENT 2	25.00	25.00	02 Jun 2008
2 HOUR EXAMINATION	60.00	60.00	END S1	(see note 1)

NOTES

1.: The examination is scheduled to be held in the end-of-semester examination period. Students will be advised of the official examination date after the timetable has been finalised.

IMPORTANT ASSESSMENT INFORMATION

Attendance requirements:
It is the students' responsibility to attend and participate appropriately in all activities (such as lectures, tutorials, laboratories and practical work) scheduled for them, and to study all material provided to them or required to be accessed by them to maximise their chance of meeting the objectives of the course and to be informed of course-related activities and administration.
Requirements for students to complete each assessment item satisfactorily:
To satisfactorily complete an individual assessment item a student must achieve at least 50% of the marks. (Depending upon the requirements in Statement 4 below, students may not have to satisfactorily complete each assessment item to receive a passing grade in this course.)
Penalties for late submission of required work:
If students submit assignments after the due date without prior approval of the examiner, then a penalty of 5% of the total marks gained by the student for the assignment may apply for each working day late up to ten working days at which time a mark of zero may be recorded.
Requirements for student to be awarded a passing grade in the course:
To be assured of receiving a passing grade a student must achieve at least 50% of the total weighted marks available for the course.
Method used to combine assessment results to attain final grade:
The final grades for students will be assigned on the basis of the aggregate of the weighted marks obtained for each of the summative assessment items in the course.
Examination information:
This is a restricted examination. Candidates are allowed access to specific materials during the examination. The only materials that candidates may use in the restricted examination for this course are: writing materials (non-electronic and free from material which could give the student an unfair advantage in the examination); calculators which cannot hold textual information (students must indicate on their examination paper the make and model of any calculator(s) they use during the examination).
Examination period when Deferred/Supplementary examinations will be held:
Any Deferred or Supplementary examinations for this course will be held during the next examination period.
University Regulations:
Students should read USQ Regulations 5.1 Definitions, 5.6 Assessment, and 5.10 Student Academic Misconduct for further information and to avoid actions which might contravene university regulations. These regulations can be found at http://www.usq.edu.au/corporateservices/calendar/part5.htm. Students should also read the Faculty of Business Policies and Procedures which can be found at http://www.usq.edu.au/business/aboutfob.htm.

ASSESSMENT NOTES

1.	Assignments: (i) The due date for an assignment is the date by which a student must submit the assignment to the USQ. (ii) Students must retain a copy of each item submitted for assessment. This must be produced within 24 hours if required by the examiner. (iii) In accordance with university policy, the examiner may grant an extension of the due date of an assignment in extenuating circumstances.
2.	Course weightings: Course weightings of topics should not be interpreted as applying to the number of marks allocated to questions testing those topics in an examination paper. The examination may test material already tested in assignments.
3.	Deferred work: Students who, for medical, family/personal, or employment-related reasons, are unable to complete an assignment or to sit for an examination at the scheduled time may apply to defer an assessment in a course. Such a request must be accompanied by appropriate supporting documentation. One of the following temporary grades may be awarded: IDS (Incomplete - Deferred Examination); IDM (Incomplete Deferred Make-up); IDB (Incomplete - Both Deferred Examination and Deferred Make-up).

This version produced 28 Aug 2009.