$100K project to improve climate forecast for northern Australia

USQ's Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments Director Professor Roger Stone

The University of Southern Queensland (USQ) will lead a team of top climate science and agricultural agencies in a scoping project to increase the profitability and long-term sustainability of agricultural industry in northern Australia.

The $100K project ‘Scoping northern Australia seasonal climate knowledge' is funded by Land and Water Australia and will improve understanding of climate variability in the region to reduce the risks and financial losses associated with extreme climate variability.

It will also address natural resource management issues in northern Australia. 

USQ will collaborate with the joint CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology Centre for Australian Climate and Weather Research (CAWCR), Monash University, the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APSRU) and key industry representatives from northern Australia.

Project leader and Director of the USQ Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments Professor Roger Stone said a comprehensive body of climate information will be gathered to identify the knowledge gaps and needs for weather and seasonal climate forecasts in the region, and find new ways to address them.

'The project will try to uncover how and where the climate science is currently useful and what new work needs to be done to help the industry in northern Australia better cope with climate variability and climate change,' Professor Stone said.

From initial workshops in the region the project team found that the agricultural industry in northern Australia urgently needs forecasts to cover the 20 to 50 day period to improve management decisions that include harvesting, planting and spraying and other tactical management issues.

The team also found that industry needs forecasts for the length of the wet season to plan in advance for the year ahead.

'Knowing the most likely onset date of the wet season is important,' he said.

'Users [of climate forecasts] also need to know in advance the likely final characteristics of the wet season—especially whether it will finish abruptly and earlier than normal or continue on into late autumn.'

The El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are the main drivers of climate in northern Australia, yet the project has found that little is known about how climate change will affect them, and how the two closely interact.

'There has been an important shift to more ‘El Niño-like' conditions over the past 30 years, although it is not quite certain how much of this observed pattern will continue into the future under climate change. 

'We also need to understand more fully the behaviour and likely rainfall with each MJO as it passes over northern Australia and the likely changes to the MJO under climate change.'

For interview: Professor Roger Stone, ph: 07 4631 2736 mob: 0437 349 168

Media contact: Jane Urquhart, USQ Media, +61 7 4631 2559