20. Transport Futures
20.1 The World of the Future
Looking into the future is never easy, and subsequent
events usually show that even the most intelligent forecasts are not entirely
accurate. However it is important to realise that our society as it exists
at the present time will change, and that as transport planners we must respond
to change. Not only must we respond to change, we will probably also be thrust
into a role where our decisions will cause change to occur. Therefore, it
is useful to look in a broad perspective at what changes are occurring in
our society, what changes may take place in the future, and the impacts that
these changes will have on our transport system.
The term ‘transport futures’, for some people, will
conjure up visions of spaceships and high speed trains, rocket belts and
flying cars, i.e. advanced transport technology. However while advanced technology
will certainly be a part of transport’s future, there are other factors which
will greatly influence the transport of tomorrow. For example, the interaction
between transport and land use plays a major role in determining the demand
for travel and the viability of modes of travel.
LINKS TO SITES ON THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORT.
A paper presented on 9 June 2000 by Robert E. Skinner,
Executive Director, Transportation Research Board in the USA appeared in the
September/October 2000 issue of the TRB magazine Public Roads. The
paper is titled
Transportation in the 21st Century
and provides a good background of the issues involved in the future of transport.
20.2 Factors Influencing Change in Transport
Several factors can be identified which are likely
to have an influence on the operation of transport systems. These factors
include:
- Transport/Telecommunications Substitution
Predictions have been made that developments in telecommunications
technology will have a radical effect on the need for travel. Changes in
work techniques, shopping methods and educational teaching processes could
be widespread with telecommunication advances. For example shopping may be
able to be carried out from the convenience of home, without the need for
personal travel and the type of trip involved will change to a goods delivery
trip.However several transport planners who have researched this area consider
a 10 to 20% replacement of existing trips by telecommunications is the maximum
that is likely to occur. At this time it seems that telecommunications technology
will have a more profound effect on social behaviour than on transport.
- Demographic Changes
Demographic trends indicate that in Australia and
many other developed countries an older population profile is developing.
This is due to an increase in longevity and a decline in birth rate. Currently
the transport needs of the elderly are not well catered for but an increase
in their number can be expected to increase research interest. In many countries
a long term trend has developed of increasing urbanisation of the population.
However this trend may be declining. An important demographic variable is
household size, which has also been showing a downward trend. Household size
determines the need for housing and affects urban form and transport requirements.
- Recreational Travel
Rising incomes and shorter working hours have contributed
to an increase in the demand for recreational travel over past decades. This
trend is likely to continue, although long term forecasting of the quantity
of recreational travel, or destinations, is likely to be prone to large errors.
- Land Use
There are many ways in which changes in land use
are likely to influence future travel patterns, although the changes are
likely to be gradual. Long term land use changes in large urban areas could
include a tendency towards a clustering of activities so that the amount
of trips involving long travel times for work, shopping and education are
reduced. This would occur if people chose to live more within a ‘local village’.
It is also likely that a higher density of housing development will occur
around public transport modes, and this trend has been in evidence for some
time.
- Transport Technology
A great deal of research effort has been put into
the development of innovative, new transport technology. However, it is likely
that any change that occurs will be more evolutionary in character than revolutionary.
Certain criteria can be identified that will have to be met for the acceptance
of any new system:
- technical reliability;
- acceptable cost;
- fulfilment of a need not currently adequately
met;
- political acceptability;
- social acceptability;
- efficiency in the use of dwindling fossil
fuel reserves; and
- environmental acceptability.
- Socio economic Climate
The effect of long term social and economic developments
in our societies is likely to be great. However, it is generally agreed, that
it is extremely difficult to forecast future economic scenarios. For example
will Australia prosper economically over the next 20 years or will the situation
be one of declining growth and prosperity? Changes in social attitudes are
perhaps even more unpredictable than economic conditions. However at least
three trends can be identified which are likely to continue in the long term:
- community concern for the environmental impact
of transport systems;
- the desire for the public to be more involved
in the decision making process; and
- the desire for greater equity among the members
of society, including the recognition of the needs of minority groups, such
as the disadvantaged, in transport provision.
- Transport Energy
The oil crises of 1973/74 and 1979 brought the realisation
that a longer term problem of oil demand exists. These events also brought
into focus the links between energy, economic growth and the balance of payments.
20.3 The Future of the Motor Vehicle
Few technological developments have affected societies
as profoundly as has the motor vehicle. Cars and trucks have transformed urban
development patterns, reduced rural isolation, opened up new forms of recreation,
and change the behaviour and lifestyle pattern of most individuals. Motor
vehicle and related industries employ millions of people worldwide. More
than any other contemporary invention, the motor vehicle has left a deep
and permanent imprint on virtually every aspect of life in the late twentieth
century.
But in many respects the development of the motor
vehicle has worked to society’s disadvantage. When motor vehicles were scarce
their effects were minimal. As numbers increased so did the problems of road
accidents, congestion, air pollution and noise. More insidious consequences
of mass car-ownership have been the effects on public transport and the structure
of towns. The growth in the proportion of trips by car is mirrored by the
corresponding decline in trips by public transport. The effect on the structure
of towns is shown particularly in the pressure for new developments on the
periphery of urban areas. An unknown in this situation is whether large-scale
peri-urban development, and the roads and parking areas which serve them,
actually induce more trips to be made. The need to provide a road network
to cope with increasing vehicle numbers has also severed many older neighbourhoods.
People who cannot drive because of financial or physical limitations now
find their access to life’s opportunities seriously impaired and society
has divided into the transport ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’.
Above all, mass use of cars has placed a tremendous
burden on the world’s liquid energy resources. More than half of the petroleum
produced in the world today is used for transport purposes, and about 80%
of that is for cars. However, the possibility of reducing society’s reliance
on the private car appears small. Most people in developed countries seek
to be able to have the freedom of movement associated with individual car
ownership and the concept of universal car ownership is not impossible. Very
many in the poorer countries of the world aspire to this as well, and car
ownership in these countries is often increasing at a much greater rate than
population increase. Currently global car ownership works out at about 100
cars per 1000 population and this is expected to grow to about 120 cars per
1000 population by the year 2010. However rates in countries such as the
USA and Australia are about 600 cars per 1000 population and only slight
increases in this level are likely to occur. The bulk of the increase in
total vehicle population (from about 550 million now to about 800 million
by 2010) will occur in the rapidly developing countries of the world.
Suburbanisation of our cities and towns has made
the car an essential component of daily life in all areas except the central
cores of our largest cities. Individually, people rely on their cars and cherish
the freedom, convenience and instant mobility that it provides. Collectively,
however, their attachment to the car has created conditions that increasingly
threaten to compromise the independence they value. Over the last two decades
governments have become increasingly aware of the cost to society of large
scale dependence on the car and have begun to formulate policies to met the
challenges created by continued high levels of car usage. These policies
have included:
- greater regulation of car and engine design
to provide safer, cleaner and more fuel efficient vehicles;
- increased emphasis on encouraging collective
forms of urban transport; and
- greater stress on efficient and intensive use
of the existing road network in preference to the construction of new facilities.
Improvements in fuel economy are likely to offer some
reprieve from the growing demand for liquid petroleum fuels, but only in
the short term. New cars are certainly becoming more fuel efficient but total
kilometres travelled is also growing. Therefore something more than a marginal
improvement in fuel efficiency is required; perhaps the development of vehicles
that can radically alter fuel usage. It would appear that the development
of relatively small light weight vehicles with small high compression engines
would achieve this, particularly in city areas. Such a vehicle, the ‘city
car’ would be intended for commuting and for short intra metropolitan travel.
This would account for up to 80% of car travel in metropolitan areas.
But what of the other 20%? People do not use cars
only for commuting. They are also used for the 5000 km annual holiday and
the like. Unfortunately we have grown up with the concept that the one vehicle
is suitable for all trip purposes when of course it is not. It may be that
in the future all purpose cars are not able to be sanctioned by society and
more specialised vehicles are developed and used.
20.4 Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)
Advances in the fields of electronics, communications
and computing are now being applied to transport to improve efficiency, reduce
costs, reduce negative environmental impact and improve transport safety.
These systems are commonly called Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). The
systems that specifically apply to the road network are frequently referred
to as Intelligent Vehicle and Highway Systems (IVHS). They involve integrated
applications of advanced surveillance, communications, computer display and
control process technologies both in the vehicle and on the road. The systems
have the potential to improve the operation of transport systems and to provide
feedback to planners, designers and operators.
The essence of IVHS as it relates to transport operations
is the improved ability to manage services using accurate, real time information
and hence to greatly enhance the control of traffic flow and individual vehicles.
Six broad and interrelated categories can be identified
in the area of ITS.
- Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS)
ATMS is concerned with the overall management of
traffic.These systems permit real time adjustment of traffic control systems
and variable message signs for driver advice. To implement these systems
real time traffic monitoring and data management capabilities are needed,
including advanced detection technology. This includes the use of image processing
systems, automatic vehicle location and identification techniques and the
use of vehicles as probes.
- Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS)
These systems will provide drivers with information
on congestion and alternate routes, navigation and location, and roadway conditions.
Information will be transferred to drivers through audio and visual means.
Information to assist in trip planning could be conveyed to homes or workplaces,
or to operators of vehicle fleets, before journeys commence. However once
a trip is underway further information would need to be relayed directly
to the vehicle, and this could include information on fog, alternate routes,
recommended speeds and lane restrictions.
- Commercial Vehicle Operations (CVO)
CVO systems are involved with the management and
operation of commercial vehicles.
- Advanced Vehicle Control Systems (AVCS)
AVCS seek to improve safety and operational efficiency
by providing information about the immediate environment and assuming partial
or total control of the vehicle. Simpler systems will probably incorporate
technologies to aid the driving task, such as sound or light alarms which
register the presence of hazardous conditions near the vehicle. More complex
systems will probably utilise adaptive cruise control and lane keeping systems
that automatically adjust vehicle speed and position (e.g. by the use of
radar systems which detect the speed and position of lead vehicles).
- Advanced Public Transportation Systems (APTS)
APTS seeks to use advanced technologies for the improved
safety, efficiency and effectiveness of the public transport system. Benefits
for the public transport user include the minimisation of delays, ticketing
convenience, improved security, and precise and up to date route and schedule
information.
- Electronic Toll Collection (ETC)
ETC uses ITS technology to provide a cost effective
way of collecting vehicle tolls. The aim is to minimise delays in the collection
of road tolls, and hence to reduce traffic congestion.
LINKS TO SITES ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORT SYSTEMS.
ITS is a subject of world-wide interest and a number
of goups or organisations have been set up to share information.
ITS Australia
, contains information on what is happening in Australia.
ITS America
is a similar source of information for developments in the USA.
The National Transportation Library in the USA contains
an area on Intelligent
Transport Systems
which continually adds new material on the latest developments in ITS. For
example an article "
Actual Hands-Off Steering: And other Wonders of the Modern World
" describes Demo '97 which was a demonstration of an automated highway system
in San Diego where platoons of vehicles drove at 105 km/h with drivers not
touching the steering wheels or floor pedals.
Page last modified 24 June 2002.