Example: Confidence Intervals

 

 

 

This 40-year-old male with ten years of education sustained a traumatic brain injury in 1990. He was tested by a psychologist six months after his injury (T1). A year later he sustained a second traumatic brain injury and is again tested by a psychologist approximately six months later (T2).  

 

 

 

                                             .                      T1                         .                             T2

            WAIS-R                                    90% Confidence Interval                

            Composite             SS                  Low                High                             SS

            VIQ                         94                    88                 100                                82

            PIQ                         87                    79                    96                                93

 

            VC                          94                    87                 101                                89

            PO                          95                    84                 107                             105

            FFD                        92                    83                 103                                75

 

 

 

 

VIQ, PIQ, VC, and PO at the time of the second testing (following injury 2) fall within the 90% confidence interval predicted from the initial testing following injury 1. This indicates that based upon the psychometric properties of the WAIS-R these scores at the second testing are within the range expected based upon the first testing (90% confidence). 

 

FFD at initial testing had a standard score of 92. A retest 90% confidence band is placed around this number  using the standard error of prediction to determine the range of scores that are likely to result from a second testing based upon the psychometric properties of the test.  As can be seen the FFD standard score of 75 following the second testing falls outside this range. The most likely explanation for this is that it results from the second injury. 

 

Test-Retest Issues

 

 There are essentially two ways to evaluate whether or not a clinically significant change in scores has occurred.

1. Place confidence intervals around the predicted true score using the standard error of prediction. A retest score that falls within this confidence band could be attributed to the properties of the test. This technique requires only the test scores and then subsequent comparison with retest data.

     (a) Note that in the tables supplied the SEp was calculated using the reliability coefficient at test and NOT the test-retest reliability. This is because if we use the test-retest reliability in the formula the interval applies only to data with a similar test-retest testing interval. If the retest time is similar to that of the standardisation sample then SEp calculated using test-retest reliability would be appropriate.

     (b) Note that the calculation of confidence intervals here does not take into account obvious systematic errors such as practice effects or fatigue. If the magnitude of these are known then it would be appropriate to subtract these effects from the test-retest difference score, i.e. X1 - X2 - practice.

     The problem with these considerations is that they both diminish the likelihood of detecting a true change, i.e. increases probability of a type II error.

2. Use formula for calculating the significance of difference scores.  This method requires both test and retest scores. Note also that we are comparing the difference between predicted true scores at test and retest. As with 1(b) it would also be appropriate to remove practice effects if these are known.

 

Significance

To determine whether the difference between two scores is significant or not, you must calculate the standard error of measurement of the difference between the two tests, using:

Multiplying this value by the z-score corresponding to the desired significance level, i.e. 1.96 for .05 level, will generate the critical difference value.  Equally, dividing the difference between the two scores by the standard error of the difference will give a z-score that can be then evaluated for significance level.  Note that predicted true scores are used to determine the difference and standard errors of estimate are used in the standard error of difference formula.

 

Abnormality

This is probably the most important of the computational procedures as we are more interested in meaningful change than significant differences. The difference between this procedure and the significance formula is that here we are interested in the standardisation sample specifically. Critical abnormality levels are calculated by multiplying the standard deviation of the difference between two scores calculated using,

which for Wechsler Composite scores simplifies to

and for Wecshler subtest age-scaled scores simplifies to

 

by the z-score corresponding to the desired frequency level (1.96 for 5%). Note that this value is two-tailed so for a unidirectional test you would use a correspondingly more rigorous value (such 2.5%). Again, as with significance, you can divide the actual difference (no true scores here) by the standard deviation of difference and look up the frequency associated with the calculated z-score.

 


 

WAIS-III SUBTESTS

 

No. of Subtests:                                                                                 14

 

Verbal Subtests: (Number of Items)

                                                                        Information (28)

                                                                        Digit Span (15)

                                                                        Vocabulary (33)

                                    Arithmetic (20)

                                                                        Comprehension (18)

                                                                        Similarities (19)

                                                                        Letter-Number Sequencing (7)

Performance Subtests:

                                                                        Picture Completion (25)

                                                                        Picture Arrangement (11)

                                                                        Block Design (14)

                                                                        Digit Symbol-Coding (133)

                                                                        Matrix Reasoning (26)

                                                                        Symbol Search (60)

 

Optional Subtests:                                        Object Assembly (4)

IQ Composites:

                                                                        Verbal IQ

                                                                        Performance IQ

                                                                        Full Scale IQ

 

Factor Indices:

                                                            Verbal Comprehension

                                                               Information

                                                               Vocabulary

                                                               Similarities

                                                            Perceptual Organisation

                                                               Block Design

                                                               Picture Completion

                                                               Matrix Reasoning

                                                            Working Memory

                                                               Digit Span

                                                               Arithmetic

                                                               Letter-Number Sequencing

                                                            Processing Speed

                                                               Digit Symbol-Coding

                                                               Symbol Search

 

Note: Picture Arrangement, Comprehension, and Object Assembly do not contribute to WAIS-III Index scores.


 

 WAIS-III  RELIABILITY AVERAGED

ACROSS ALL AGE GROUPS

 

                                                          Internal Consistency            Test-Retest (30-54 yr.)

Information                                                         .91                                          .94

Digit Span                                                         .90                                          .83

Vocabulary                                                        .93                                          .94

Arithmetic                                                          .88                                          .87

Comprehension                                                .84                                          .81

Similarities                                                        .86                                          .88

Letter-Number Sequencing                             .82                                          .78

Picture Completion                                          .83                                          .79

Picture Arrangement                                        .74                                          .73

Block Design                                                    .86                                          .88

Object Assembly                                              .70                                          .78

Digit Symbol                                                     .84                                          .84

Matrix Reasoning                                             .90                                          .75

Symbol Search                                                 .77                                          .82

 

Verbal IQ                                                           .97                                          .96

Performance IQ                                                .94                                          .90

Full Scale IQ                                                      .98                                          .96

 

Verbal Comprehension                                   .96                                          .95

Perceptual Organisation                                  .93                                          .88

FFD/Working Memory                                     .94                                          .90

Processing Speed                                           .88                                          .88

 


On the WAIS-III mean retest scores for the 30-54 age group are higher (2-12 weeks later) than initial testing by:

                            Verbal IQ                                                2.0 points

                            Performance IQ                                     8.3 points

                            Full Scale IQ                                          5.1 points

 

                            Verbal Comprehension                        2.1 points

                            Perceptual Organisation                      7.4 points

                            Working Memory                                   3.1 points

                            Processing Speed                                4.6 points

 


 STRUCTURE OF THE WMS-III

 

SUBTESTS

Information & Orientation

Logical Memory I, II, Recognition

Faces I & II

Verbal Paired Associates I, II, Recognition

Family Pictures I & II

Word Lists I, II, Recognition

Visual Reproduction I, II, Recognition

Letter-Number Sequencing

Spatial Span

Mental Control

Digit Span

 

Note 1: Information & Orientation, Word Lists, Visual Reproduction, Digit Span, and Mental Control do not contribute to composites

 

PRIMARY INDICES

 

IMMEDIATE MEMORY

 

                    Auditory Immediate                                                   Visual Immediate

                       Logical Memory I                                                                Faces I

               Verbal Paired Associates I                                                Family Pictures I

 

GENERAL MEMORY

 

        Auditory Delayed                 Visual Delayed         Auditory Recognition Delayed

         Logical Memory II                         Faces II                              Logical Memory II

Verbal Paired Associates II         Family Pictures II              Verbal Paired Associates II

 

WORKING MEMORY

Letter-Number Sequencing

Spatial Span

 

AUDITORY PROCESS COMPOSITES

        Single-Trial                   Learning

           Learning                        Slope                         Retention                       Retrieval

    Logical Memory I        Logical Memory I           Logical Memory I           Logical Memory II

       Verbal Paired              Verbal Paired             Logical Memory II             Verbal Paired

         Associates I                 Associates I                 Verbal Paired                 Associates II

                                                                                      Associates I

                                                                                     Verbal Paired

                                                                                      Associates II


 COMPARABLE RELIABILITY COEFFICIENTS FOR WMS-III

SUBTESTS AND INDICES

 

Primary Subtests:                                  Consistency                         Retest

                   Logical Memory I                           .88                                       .74

                   Faces I                                            .74                                       .70

                   Verbal Paired Associates I          .93                                       .81

                   Family Pictures I                            .81                                       .63

                   Letter-Number Sequencing          .82                                       .71

                   Spatial Span                                  .79                                       .71

                   Logical Memory II                          .79                                       .76

                   Faces II                                           .74                                       .63

                   Verbal Paired Associates II         .83                                       .77

                   Family Pictures II                           .84                                       .68

 

Supplementary Subtests:

                   Mental Control                                .87                                       .77

                   Word Lists I                                    .79                                       .61

                   Word Lists II                                   .80                                       .62

                   Visual Reproduction I                    .79                                       .60

                   Visual Reproduction II                   .77                                       .60

 

Index Scores:

                   Auditory Immediate                       .93                                       .85

                   Visual Immediate                           .82                                       .77

                   Immediate Memory                       .91                                       .85

                   Auditory Delayed                           .87                                       .83

                   Visual Delayed                              .83                                       .75

                   Aud. Rec. Delayed                        .74                                       .62

                   General Memory                            .91                                       .87

                   Working Memory                           .86                                       .79


Tuesday, 16 April 2002
© 2000 by Graeme Senior, Ph.D.
Senior Lecturer
Department of Psychology
University of Southern Queensland
Toowoomba, QLD 4350
Australia